For the first time this year I watched a full west coast college game this week as Oregon battled Stanford for not only the inside track for the PAC 12 North championship, but also to keep pace in the hunt to get routed by an SEC school in the BCS championship game. This was the west coasts' version of LSU vs Alabama, but a little weaker of course.
A few things I wanted to check out for myself. First was Andrew Luck. I watched him play against Va Tech in last years Orange Bowl and liked what I saw. I had the privilege to spend time with John Harbarugh a while back and I've always liked what he stood for: tough, physical and committed so i knew Luck would be a mirror image. I liked his skills and the way he was cool in the pocket. I did have some speculation in watching him though. My main issue was that Va Tech had an awful offense. You can not play in a BCS bowl game without a legit QB. Someone who can threaten an opponents defense with his arm. Every team that has won a BCS title has had a QB who could hurt you if you crowded the line of scrimmage with 8 defenders. From Tennessee in 1998 with T Martin, to Matt Mauck of LSU in 2003 all the way to the beast himself, Cam Newton, last year. I say this because Va Tech's QB Tyrod Taylor was a good athlete and a good passer in spots but Stanford dared him to beat them and he did not respond to the challenge. So what does this have to do with Andrew Luck? Well, in my mind, it tilted the playing field big time. Trust me when I say that a defense gets tired when your offense doesn't convert on third downs - Va Tech was 5-14. Though Taylor threw for over 200 yards he was never a real threat and Stanford broke their will and cruised to a 40-12 victory. Tech is known for a fast and disciplined defense but was off balance with the Cardinal running and passing attack. Given this, Luck looked very good (18-23 287yds and 4 TD's).
What I wanted to see against Oregon was how he would play when the pressure is constantly on him to make plays while going toe-to-toe with an offensive juggernaut. Oregon is not known for it's defense but had a great game plan: put a lot of pressure on Luck and be physical with his receivers (this wouldn't work if they were playing an SEC school). It worked to perfection as Luck had trouble recognizing where the heat was coming from and consistently missed receivers and threw a lot of passes off of his back foot. He was sacked and intercepted and looked very confused. Not exactly what the leading Heisman candidate should look like. Once the Ducks took control of the game, Luck folded like Tom Brady under pressure.
I think that some of these west coast QB's are way too used to hitting wide-open receivers running a bunch of option and hot routes and playing against defenses which are not all that physical nor good. This is why guys like Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart have trouble in the NFL. The pro game may be wide open, but the window to fit a ball is tremendously tighter than college and the time you have to get rid of the football shrinks dramatically. Just look at Mark Sanchez. He definitely has the talent but he is just so used to throwing to wide open receivers in college that he is struggling with the transition.
So the question is, now that you've seen Andrew Luck perform when he is consistently pressured and his receivers are being blanketed, is he still a can't miss NFL QB? A lot was revealed about the kid this past Saturday. Yes he is smart, and possesses a strong arm, but as we've learned in the NFL, that will not do it all the time. I'm sure in the pass happy NFL, he more than likely will succeed, but I saw something completely alarming about him Saturday night.
Lastly, is he even the Heisman front runner after the game against Oregon? In the biggest game against a good opponent (for a west coast team) he was awful. The weight was on his shoulders and he failed. On the other hand, my guy for the Heisman, Trent Richardson, carried Alabama in their loss vs #1 LSU. There was no doubt that in the biggest game of the year, he showed up and handled his business against the second best defense in the country.
I really think Luck will turn out to be a good pro but Saturday opened my eyes.
As a side note, everything is setting up perfect for an all SEC BCS Championship - Just as God would want it.
Peace
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